World Cup 2014 – What Still Can Happen

By on June 30, 2014

World Cup 2014 is getting down to the wire; the final stages.  We are in the middle of the Second Round, and a few teams have already booked their place in the Quarterfinals, yet we are still a rather far way off from the finish. Still over two weeks away, in fact. And a lot could still happen.  Costa Rica have been the surprise Quarterfinalist so far, topping a group they were previously written off in and then beating Greece to advance to the last eight.  But they still could surprise more – beat the Netherlands and they are into the Semifinals. And while that might be a tough task, Mexico only just lost via a late comeback to the Dutch in the Quarterfinals, while Costa Rica have already beaten Italy and Uruguay.  However, there are some more outlandish turns fate could still take – here, we take a look at them, and the odds of them happening.

A USA-Costa Rica Semifinal?

Yes, it really still could happen. And what would it mean? It would mean that one of these two sides would advance to the World Cup final. All that needs happen is the US beat Belgium, then the winner of Switzerland-Argentina (preferably, this would be Switzerland), and Costa Rica beat the Netherlands. That could happen, right?

According to data reported by Bloomberg Stats Insights, there is a 14.70% chance that Costa Rica will reach the Semifinals. Yet Costa Rica have beaten the odds before – there was only a 19% chance they would defeat Greece and just a 10.9% chance they would make it out of Group D, which they ended up winning. Before the tournament began there was only an 0.1% they would win the whole thing, and now there is, well, an 0.2% chance they will win it. Anyhow, Costa Rica have already beaten the odds, now onto beating the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, there is a 17.1% chance the US will beat Belgium, but considering the US drew Portugal and beat Ghana, it wouldn’t be a huge upset if it did happen. There is around the same chances that Switzerland will beat Argentina. All in all, there is only a small percentage chance that the US (or Switzerland, for that matter) will face Costa Rica in an incredible Semifinal, but heck, this is the World Cup, and percentages are just data that gets screwed once the game has begun.

Algeria in the Semifinals?

Yes, Algeria can still make the semifinals. For the most part, that is only because they haven’t been knocked out yet (just wait, they play Germany later today). There is still a 2.7% they can do so, and if Nigeria beat France, that probability will surely double int he favor of Algeria. They only scraped by in second place in Group H, yet it could still happen – they have a 5.3% chance of beating Germany.

And if they do beat Germany, then France is likely to be the only thing left standing in their way of the semis, and what an interesting Quarterfinal that would be – most of the Algeria team is either part-French or of French descent.

And that means…An Algeria-Costa Rica final!?

Theoretically, it could still happen. This is the World Cup – and anybody still in it still has a chance of winning it all or at least making the final, no matter how small the chances are. Then again, that means the final still could be the predictable Brazil-Argentina or Germany-Netherlands.

All data collected by Opta and reported by Bloomberg Stats Insights

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.