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Do more DPs mean more success in MLS?
The Western Conference Finals, the semifinals of the MLS Cup, should, theoretically, decide the best team in the Western Conference, considering LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders, who will meet in the semifinal, also finished first and second in the regular season, separated by just three points. Immediately, what catches the eye about this match is that it will be contested between not just the two best teams in the Western Conference, but the two with all but the biggest star attraction. Galaxy, the team which the Designated Player Rule was created for so they could sign David Beckham in 2007, and Sounders spend the two highest sums of money on Designated Players (those whom only count $368,750 against a club’s salary cap no matter if their annual salary is bigger), in the Western Conference. The two clubs together own Landon Donovan, Omar Gonzalez, Robbie Keane, Clint Dempsey, and Obafemi Martins, all earning six figures-a-year, according to the MLS’ Players Union. Moreover, they both are one of the few clubs to use all three of their DP slots, the third of which they have to spend $250,000 on. In short, the two best clubs in the Western Conference are the two highest paying.
So, naturally it leads you to believe that the more money you spend on DPs, the more success you have. Certainly, that is the case. Plotted below, the trend between money spent on DPs and performance, in the 2014 MLS regular season, is there (though the line is no coefficient of determination).
This seems trivial. After all, the bigger and better the DPs, they better your team is. However, you have to cast your mind back to why the DP rule was created in the first place. It wasn’t just to level the playing field in the league, but MLS learned from the mistakes of it’s 1970s predecessor, the North American Soccer League. In the NASL, many big name players were bought, but the squads in those days were simply based too much around those stars, and when the left, often due to retirement or simply losing interest in the league, those teams, and eventually the NASL, fell apart. The DP rule in MLS forces teams to have a better core of players in order to compete. Toronto FC illustrated why this rule is there this past season. The club have spent over $5,000,000 more than anybody else in the 2014 league on DP salaries, having spent $13,145,000 on Jermain Defoe, Michael Bradley, and Gilberto’s salaries. Bradley and Defoe were the joint top earners in the league, although with Kaka’s arrival at Orlando City may be out-payed next season.
The point is, Toronto payed more than anybody else by a long-shot on DPs, but still failed to even make the playoffs. Their team was too centered around those three players and their core of players weren’t good enough. The DP rule minimized this effect, though, and Toronto are certainly not a team falling apart. But it does signal that DPs aren’t everything. In MLS, a strong core of players is still a priority. However, data does signal that good DPs will never hurt, and neither does more.