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Arsenal’s tough pool in UCL draw is no fluke

By on December 11, 2014

Arsenal are accused of mediocrity at times, mixed amid flashes of brilliance. Moreover, Arsenal fans accuse Arsene Wenger of achieving nothing more than mediocrity with the club since they last won the Premier League over a decade ago. But mediocrity, in its more positive form of stability, is a character to which many managers aspire. managers can hope for. Since Wenger took over nearing twenty years ago, Arsenal have never failed to fall out of the top four in the league. However, Arsenal fans have become bored of (or is it spoiled by?) this form of stability. Not since their last season at Highbury have the club finished higher than third. This form translates into their Champions League performances as well. Recently, they finished runners-up in Group D and qualified for the knockout stages of the competition for the twelfth consecutive season.

That record is one even the best of clubs would cherish. It is stability at the highest level of football, yet Arsenal fans want more – in all of the past four seasons, they have also achieved only the minimal success in the knockout stages; elimination in the Round of 16. This season, expect the same. Even the sheer numbers are stacked against Arsenal. In the Round of 16 draw, there are only six clubs they can face (as runners-up in their group, only group winners not from England or Group D champion Borussia Dortmund); Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, last season’s finalists, AS Monaco, Bayern Munich, who won the tournament in 2013, Barcelona, and Porto, against whom they would only be favorites (or even likely have a chance at all) vs Porto and Monaco. Why is their draw likely to end so poorly? The exact same reason it has consistently over the past four years.

In those four years, what has plagued them is mediocrity in the group stages. In the past eight seasons, they have now finished runners-up in their group six times, leaving their odds or drawing tougher sides in the Round of 16 tenfold higher. They have consistently gotten out of their group, but in second place, what has lead to them drawing the likes of Bayern Munich (twice) and Barcelona in just the past four seasons. It’s not bad luck – there is no coincidence to their Round of 16 draws. It may just be down to complacency, what Wenger would hope, or simply the same old mediocrity in the group stages. Arsenal’s mediocrity has not only plagued their league form, but Champions League chances as well.

To prove the pattern, only look as far as Borussia Dortmund, Group D leaders ahead of Arsenal. The Germans are relative newbies to the Champions League, yet managed a quarter-final and final appearance in the past two seasons. And both times they had relatively easy draws in the Round of 16, Shakhtar Donestk and Zenit Saint Petersburg, in part because, you guessed it, they won their groups. This season, the clubs they can possibly draw in the Round of 16 also is quite a bit easier than those which Arsenal may face; Juventus, Basel, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, and Shakhtar Donestk. Meanwhile, Barcelona have perhaps even better chance of drawing a weaker side – they could face either, Juventus, Basel, Leverkusen, Arsenal themselves, Manchester City City, Schalke 04, and Shakhtar. Arsenal, on the other hand, can only expect some of the best sides in Europe for their Round of 16 draw next Monday.

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.