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Rating Southampton’s most likely finishes this season

By on January 14, 2015

Coming out of the jam-packed holiday period, Southampton’s recent results show a telling story. In the Premier League, they have won thirteen of fifteen possible points from their last five matches, only dropping points in an impressive 1-1 draw with Chelsea in their final match of 2014. Other results in that period include a 3-0 win over Everton, 2-0 win over Arsenal, and 1-0 triumph over Manchester United. In the same period many thought would provide their final kick back down to realty has only gone to confirm the reality to their bid for European football. Not only that, but even possibly Champions League football – currently, they sit in third place in the league well past the halfway point. And with an easier run of fixtures until the run-in – their next four league matches come against Newcastle United, Swansea City, Queens Park Rangers, and West Ham United – as well as a fit squad (only Tony Alderweireld is sidelined after a recent injury against Manchester United, though Saido Mane is also off to the African Cup of Nations), Southampton can begin to dream of the impossible, for their battle is no longer just to penetrate the top eight.

1st place:
Southampton are good, but not that good. At the moment, they are still a good ten points off the top of the table, and their battle is more for the top four than the title.
Likelihood: Very low
Odds: 200/1

2nd place:
It would take something of a miracle to pass Manchester City or Chelsea, the two title favorites, but it is no longer impossible, more like a best scenario.
Likelihood: Low
Odds: 33/1

3rd place:
This is where Southampton really begin to come into the picture. They currently sit in third, but if Manchester United or Arsenal slip up and Southampton can maintain steady form through the season with one or two big wins along the way, a third place finish for the club would involve a tight race, and is probably Mauricio Pochettino’s goal.
Likelihood: Medium
Odds: 4/1

4th place:
Arsenal are their main competitors here. Southampton are currently three points ahead of The Gunners after beating Arsene Wenger’s side on New Years Day, but with their opponents on the rise and expected by the bookmakers to finish in the too four for the twentieth consecutive season. Arsenal, however, seem in no better position than Southampton to take out other big guns – Southampton have actually performed well against the big six as illustrated in their recent form – and with consistent enough form The Saints can easily have a shot at Champions League football.
Likelihood: High
Odds (4th or higher): 13/10

5th place:
Currently where the bookies place Southampton’s most likely finish, and certainly if Arsenal find their form and Southampton lose to the big guns it is. Despite the promise of European football, this would be a bit of a disappointment
Likelihood: High

6th place:
At this point, what with Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool’s struggles of late, it would take a major resurgence from one of the two and minor collapse from Southampton for the club to fall this far. Considering the tactical flexibility they have shown not only to dominate matches but to get the result, demonstrated in their win over Manchester United last weekend, the sixth place finish would also involve a few cheap losses of points.
Likelihood: Low
Odds (6th place or higher): 1/8

7th place:
Finishing behind both Liverpool and Tottenham at this point, it would provide major disappointment given their current aspirations.
Likelihood: Very Low

Outcome:
A fifth place finish seems most likely given Arsenal resurge, a fourth place finish the goal, and a six place finish to fall back on.

Odds from Ladbrokes and Oddschecker

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.