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No in-form forwards, no fun; Aston Villa’s goal drought explained

By on February 5, 2015

Aston Villa is one of the seven teams to have been ever-present in the Premier League since its latest rebranding, for all twenty-three years of its existence since.  Yet now they are reaching a new low point, on the brink of spoiling their place in the history books.

Villa have never been as stable as their six other constant competitors in England’s top division, indeed fluctuating between success and the mid-table doldrums often, but over the past two seasons have flirted with relegation for the first time. However, with a young side Paul Lambert built at the club hopes were high for a rebound coming into this season. Villa started brightly enough, only to slowly slip into the relegation battle. And this weekend they are coming into an all but hopeless meeting with league leaders Chelsea on a club record goalless streak of 612 minutes, spanning six matches. Given a comprehensive 5-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal last week, one can expect that drought to continue against a Chelsea side which has allowed the second fewest number of goals in the league so far this season.

It is only by coincidence that the match also marks Lambert’s 100th match in charge of Villa, an ill-timed one at that, but Lambert is in no way counting the days until his departure. From the outside there seems no lack of faith in the manager among the owners or board; as a matter of fact, the club’s chief executive, Tom Fox, recently gave his backing to Lambert.

From the fans’ perspective, this may seem impossibly absurd, and it does take some explaining to back Lambert — for this may be the perfect example where it isn’t the manager, but the players underperforming.

Tactically, Aston Villa isn’t doing too much wrong and small changes won’t go a whole long way considering how poor Villa have been recently. They sit three points above the relegation zone, but their goalscoring form been even worse. The Lions have played twenty-three matches yet scored, astoundingly, only eleven goals. Two sides, Hull City, and Sunderland are equal for the next lowest tally with nearly twice as many goals: 20. This is where Villa is going wrong; their defense has been the only thing keeping them from the drop, with two recent scoreless draws.

Again, they aren’t tactically that far off base. They create enough shots to get by with — Sunderland have taken one less so far this season — and from decent positions. Their possession-oriented style sees them go down the middle more often than is average, but they are only incrementally different from the averages on where their shots are coming from and how many they get. Lambert couldn’t be doing much more in this account.

Actually, it is rather inexplicable why the club is in such a goal drought. They are 4% worse off than any other Premier League side in shot accuracy, although most teams with fewer shots have a better ratio – Sunderland are almost as effective as Villa are ineffective in this remark. Meanwhile, the average shot-per-goal rate is 10-1, but Villa’s is around double that at 20-1. Simply, they have had terrible finishing so far this season.

The main culprit is Christian Benteke, who provided almost a third of the club’s goals last season and was widely regarded as their brightest talent. There are others — Charles N’Zogiba, for instance — that drive down the club’s shot accuracy, but for the most part Andreas Weimann and Gabriel Agbonlahor have been okay, with three league goals apiece.

Coming from the back of an ankle injury Benteke has not at all begun to rediscover his goalscoring form, with just two goals and one assist in over 1,100 minutes of play spanning fourteen league appearances. He has needed 41 shots to score those two goals, whereas an in-form Premier League forward can score almost thrice that tally with half the shots. The 24-year-old’s shot accuracy, is just 27%, much worse than even his team’s league-low. For whatever reason, Villa, and especially Benteke just cannot score.

The January purchases of Scott Sinclair and Carles Gil will be vital for Villa’s relegation battle, but given the failed attempt to bring in Rickie Lambert, who is similar to Benteke in style of play, Benteke’s form is clearly still the main concern for Lambert.

Photo credits: Flickr and Erik Drost

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.