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It’s all in the next twenty years — predicting MLS’ future

By on March 5, 2015

At the age of twenty, MLS remains a young league, still with training wheels on in certain dimensions.  The newest CBA deal, signed only just ahead of deadline to avoid a potentially disastrous Players’ Union Strike, was always destined to see the league maintain its single entity structure. Only over the past few months has the league rebranded itself for the first time, aiming to herald a new period of prosperous growth over the next twenty years.

The soccer world was a different place twenty years ago, and the league has formed an admirable base of stability in the intervening years.  With this solid foundation, the league’s past can now help predict its future. So what do we want from MLS over the next twenty years, and what is reasonable to expect?

The next steps:
MLS has been infamous for its strongly risk-averse approach to growth: twenty years on from its conception many find it frustrating that players are yet to earn free agency. We can expect MLS to continue to fight against that right, given Don Garber’s commitment to his investor base in the league.

The new CBA deal lasts through 2021, and coincidentally, the MLS’ explicit goal is to become a top league in the world by 2022. The next CBA deal, just as the two before it will have been, will allow MLS to measure itself against its expectation. Realistically, not much will change regarding the structure of the league, and the focus will be how far it can develop and market the competition. The CBA deal will mirror the league’s quality, aiming to propel it to grow to become of the best leagues in the world.

Hopefully, by then MLS will be ready to break into the limelight. As more star players are welcomed to the league, it will be necessary by 2021 for the impact of the salary cap to be reduced again, even if not completely abolished, and edge salaries closer to those in Europe. The league’s single-entity structure could finally be changed as well, and free agency made available to more players.  Thus, the owners’ investments in their teams will more directly impact their success.  Time could make this happen gradually, but most likely it will be a few events, such as David Beckham move to the LA Galaxy, which forced the Designated Player rule upon MLS in 2007.  Next time around though, one could expect it to be a younger player while he is still ranked among the best in the world.

With twenty teams already and at least two joining in 2017, MLS is seemingly bypassing the normal twenty and twenty-four team league marks made common in Europe without looking back.  Though Garber has insisted that they plan to slow their expansion across the States, it is still easy to envision a league with twenty-five or twenty-six teams by 2022. Eventually, it will be a debate over whether to check each conference at fifteen or twenty clubs. Either way, winning the Supporters Shield and Conference titles will become even more of an achievement.

San Antonio looks to be the most likely candidate for an expansion team in the near future while Las Vegas, Sacramento, and another team in the Great Lakes region seems likely. Expansion fees can also be expected to skyrocket, especially as the remaining expansion opportunities dwindle. Whenever the 2022 CBA deal ends, the league can be expected to name their cap on expansion around the same time — by 2030 at least. The next steps will largely be focused on setting the league with a business model that can promote it to becoming one of the best in the world. However, MLS does have at least one upper hand on Europe: while MLS lacks the history, brilliant new stadiums (such as the Earthquakes’ new Aviva Stadium) will give the league a very attractive gameday experience for fans.

Long-term (WORLD DOMINATION!):
While 2022 may be a stretch, to set a date around 2035 for the MLS to genuinely be the best league in the world is not nearly as big a stretch — the next generation of US National Team players who are hoping to bring the US its first World Cup by 2026 will be old news by then. Here’s where MLS fans become doe-eyed dreaming of the possibilities.

At current growth levels, one can certainly expect football to have a growing impact on American sports culture, especially with increasing population diversity in the United States.  Just as London and the Greater Manchester area are in the UK, Los Angeles and New York will warrant being recognized worldwide as great footballing hubs. LAFC hopes to change the face of the soccer in LA, while it is easy to assume that New York City FC and LA Galaxy will be spearheading these two markets for many years.

As for the league’s structure, it probably won’t change that much after 2022 and 2030. Once the league settles into a system in which it can thrive as the best league in the world, major rebrands won’t be necessary — it will be evolution not revolution. In 2035, the league may barely resemble today’s, but isn’t that what we want from such growth?

Partnerships with the NASL, USL, or another potential lower division are likely to be created as well, potentially changing the format of competition at the bottom of  the league tables.  The league will reach a crossroads sometime around 2030: relegation — or not? By that point, the league will likely to be able to support the proposition. However, the league seems insistent upon keeping its playoff system for now.

On the international level, a new rivalry will inevitably rise between North America and Europe, both between the national teams and leagues. A new dynamic will be created, and likely to change the face of the sport before the next big game-changing market emerges. By then, MLS aims to be a world force, all in the next twenty years.

Homepage photo credit: Matt Boulton on Flickr

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.