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Making sense of a wide-open Premier League title race

By on December 13, 2015

It is unlikely that any Liverpool manager has ever celebrated a draw with West Bromwich Albion so wildly. Jurgen Klopp burst into an emotional rampage on the touchline when Divock Origi scored Liverpool’s stoppage time equalizer against the Baggies today, beating his chest like a madman. “It felt like three [points],” Klopp said, noting: “Sometimes, a point deserved in the right way is more important. I know we all want the three points, it’s important for the table. But for development, so many different things are important.”

At this stage in the Premier League season, momentum is perhaps worth more than the points themselves for Liverpool. Suddenly, the far off lands at the top of the table no longer seem as distant, with Liverpool’s gap to the top reduced to just nine points.

They’re chasing Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Arsenal, but no clear favorite among them has yet to emerge. Having picked up Raheem Sterling and Kevin de Bruyne over the summer, Manchester City came into the season as strong candidates given the cracks already starting to emerge in Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea team. The Sky Blues vindicated the hype with a perfect start, winning each of their first five matches. Their convincing victory over Chelsea seemed to resemble a sort of passing of the torch at the time, but after a 4-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur, their momentum has tailed off. David Silva, their key cog in the middle, then went out injured to add to a list that already contained Sergio Aguero, who has floated in and out of match-fitness so far this season. With another 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Liverpool and a defeat to Stoke City, Manuel Pellegrini’s men dropped that torch. That torch has since been fumbled around between the league’s big six and the title race is still wide open; this is our attempt to condense one topsy-turvy title race in a straightforward manner.

In mid-November, during a visit to Anfield that was supposed to reassure City’s confidence and vindicate Sterling’s move to Manchester, the visitors’ back-line was horrible exposed with the absence of Vincent Kompany. The Belgian’s fitness remains the biggest question mark over City’s chase of the title, and if Aguero and Silva return sometime over the holidays, City can use their relatively easy holiday schedule as a platform to launch a title run. All of this, however, hinges on the health of their first team.

City’s next big hurtle is a meeting with table-toppers Arsenal. Perhaps due to their lack of additions up front. the Gunners’ front-line found their rhythm early in the season as they began to build upon their slow-boiling title campaign little by little. However, their lack of depth has come back to bite them and their mounting injury list appeared to be an issue after a slow run in early November. Yet Arsene Wenger’s men recently sealed their qualification to the Champions League knockout stages, and convincing wins over Aston Villa and Sunderland in the league have restored their confidence. Arsenal have scored in each of their last thirteen Premier League matches and have only dropped seven points out of eighteen from their last six matches — the fewest of the big six clubs — including a positive draw with an in-form Tottenham side.

But then again, this is Arsenal. Count on them to find a way not to win the title no matter the odds. At this point, they’ll be focused on keeping Alexis Sanchez fit.

Leicester City have a chance to leapfrog Arsenal at the top of the table as they play hosts on Monday to Chelsea, a side reeling from a home loss to Bournemouth last weekend. The Blues have lost four of their last six and picked up only four points from their last possible eighteen in the league. So much for a comeback. Mourinho’s men have been reliably solid at the back, but their lack of goals has been startling. Mourinho’s squabble with Diego Costa has been costly, given Chelsea’s lack any other recognized center-forwards. Eden Hazard has cameoed up top in recent games, yet he has only performed sporadically out of position.

Perhaps more worrying for Mourinho than Chelsea’s eighteen point deficit to the top of the table is that a reasonable solution to their problem has yet to present itself. Their next three fixtures, against Leicester, Sunderland and Watford might offer some respite. but time is against Mourinho’s aging team.

On the other end of the spectrum are Liverpool and Tottenham, both sporting youthful, spirited teams. The former’s season has turned on its head since Jurgen Klopp’s arrival in early October and statement wins over Chelsea and Manchester City have beautifully showcased their vigorous, high-pressing approach. Liverpool’s back line might be a little too leaky for them to make up nine points on the top of the table without January additions, but should Divock Origi continue his bright run of form the Reds might find them in a favorable position on the other side of the New Year. They face Watford, Leicester, Sunderland and West Ham United in between then, all very winnable matches.

Only Spurs’ run of holiday fixtures might be easier, with Pochettino’s men facing Southampton, Norwich, Watford and Everton. In fifth place, Tottenham struck their chord in the middle of October, with fourteen straight undefeated matches since the opening day of the season until their loss to Newcastle United earlier today. The presences of Dele Alli and Eric Dier have helped root their promising midfield and Erik Lamela has used the Europa League as a platform to build up his confidence as well. Harry Kane has found his rhythm and Spurs made a statement with their victory over Manchester City, while they have also shown bright signs in draws with Arsenal and Chelsea. Their challenge is maintaining this form consistently given the inexperience of their most promising players. Already, their form has shown sings of dipping and they haven’t won any of their last three fixtures.

Last but not least we turn our focus to Manchester United. The Red Devils are trailing just off the top of the table in fourth following a disheartening loss to Bournemouth. United have only won two of their last six league matches and they began their perfectly terrible week with VfL Wolfsburg dumping them out of the Champions League. Their growing injury list has prevented Louis van Gaal from piecing together a consistently potent attack, but the raw talent appears to be there. The jury is out on whether the Dutchman has actually improved the team, however.

United will hope their back-line returns to full fitness before a clash with Chelsea on Boxing Day and Van Gaal is in search of a system that optimizes both Anthony Martial and Wayne Rooney. Memphis Depay, meanwhile, will certainly have to step up his production rate if United are to aim for the title, but he has been very patchy so far this season. Really, the only thing we can state with 100% certainty is that nothing is set in stone in the Premier League title race so far.

Homepage photo credit: Ronnie Macdonald, via Flickr

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.