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A Sunday to shape the Premier League title race

By on February 12, 2016

Perhaps more so than any other Sunday in the Premier League, February 14th has the potential to shape this season’s title race. League leaders Leicester City visit third-placed Arsenal at the Emirates and fourth-placed Manchester City host second-placed Tottenham Hotspur at the Etihad. The weekend’s results could send the title race veering off in a million different directions (or nine, to be exact) with the potential to be decisive.

Oddsmakers have given Arsenal a 60% chance of beating Leicester, with a draw receiving 20% odds; fairly generous odds it would seem, given the clubs’ respective runs of form. However, Arsenal are the only side against whom the Foxes have a losing record this season, following the Gunners’ emphatic 5-2 away win in September.

In Manchester, Tottenham are at 30% odds to win and City have been given a healthy 49% chance, despite their 3-1 spanking by Leicester last week. Here are all of the possible outcomes from the weekend, by order of most to least likely based on the bookies.

Manchester City win + Arsenal win: 29%

The two big dogs, Arsenal and City, have the odds on to win, even though they’re both sitting below their respective opponents in the league.

This is Arsenal’s best chance to make a statement coming into their season run-in and drag themselves back within two points of the top, making it a four horse race again. On a broader perspective, it “feels as though the past decade of Wenger’s management has been called into question,” as Jonathan Wilson eloquently put it in the Guardian.

For City, this is perhaps their last chance to resurrect a title campaign that has slipped away into mediocrity as the weeks after wore on and make a statement to counteract their drubbing at the hands of Leicester last weekend.

This outcome would take the top four all within three points of each other.

Tottenham Hotspur win + Arsenal win: 18%

Nobody has dared say it yet, but with a win over City, Spurs could put a stamp of credibility on their silent title campaign. With a hot run of six consecutive wins, Tottenham have crept into a fantastic position in second place to launch a surprise push for silverware. With these two results, Arsenal and Tottenham would be level on fifty-one points in second, two behind Leicester.

Draw + Arsenal win: 17%

This would give Arsenal momentum and drag them back within two points of Leicester, whilst leaving City with a lot of work to do and keeping Tottenham as dark horses.

Manchester City win + Draw: 12%

A draw between Leicester and Arsenal would be favorable for the Foxes, although a City win would then put pressure on both and leave Tottenham chasing the rest of the pack.

Manchester City win + Leicester City win: 10%

This outcome is surprisingly far down the list of probabilities given Leicester have roughly been billed as the favorites over Arsenal in the media. Claudio Ranieri’s men are no longer simply a fairy-tale, just a really, really good side and a win would expand their five point buffer at the top of the table. On the back of wins against City, Liverpool, and an FA Cup triumph over Tottenham, Leicester would begin to run away with the silverware.

This is probably the worst-possible scenario for Arsenal and would again leave Tottenham as outsiders.

Tottenham Hotspur win + Draw: 8%

A draw at the Emirates and win for Tottenham would keep the race wide open, although it would leave City with a lot of work to do.

Draw + Draw: 7%

Two draws, though unlikely, would effectively stall the sprint finish of the title race. The results would favor Leicester and Tottenham, the two top sitting teams, and potentially allow Manchester United to creep back into the race should they beat Sunderland on Saturday.

Draw + Leicester City win: 6%

The best-case scenario for Leicester, giving them an almost insurmountable seven point lead at the top and taking the wind out of Tottenham, Arsenal and City’s sails, leaving the rest of the back chasing on Ranieri’s coattails.

Tottenham Hotspur win + Leicester City win: 6%

The most unlikely outcome according to the bookmakers would also leave for the most interesting run-in. Wins for Tottenham and Leicester would set up the potential of a two-horse race between dark-horses, leaving Arsenal and City eight and nine points off the top, respectively, and with just twelve games to go, those are extremely difficult margins to close. With the two clubs currently sitting atop the Premier League table, these odds might seem to undervalue current form.

Homepage photo credit: Stuart Grout, via Flick

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.