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West Ham the breaking point for Southampton

By on February 9, 2015

Ah, to remember the simple days when the title race was between Manchester United and Manchester City and the battle for the top four always ended in Arsenal nicking the last Champions League slot ahead of Tottenham or Liverpool. For the past six years either Arsenal of Tottenham has finished in fourth, but this year may well provide the first change in years. Or, at least, it may well be decided in the most unlikely of fixtures: West Ham United versus Southampton.

Historically this match has hardly been the most important of fixtures — indeed, when the two sides met in September none could have guessed what the reverse fixture may decide — yet rarely did it lack in entertainment value. The two sides’ first meeting this season was Southampton’s only win this season after their opposition scored first, and West Ham’s only loss having been the first to score.

But that stat means even more: it gives us ammunition to predict this next fixture. If West Ham scores first, the stats tell us they won’t surrender the lead, and so far this season they have only dropped seven points from a leading position. Equally Southampton aren’t likely to score after conceding first – only against West Ham and Aston Villa have they won any points from such matches. Why? Southampton appears prone to panicking. In their best results this season, any heat map will depict a clear outline of their attacking game plan: control possession and find openings down the middle. Only Swansea and Burnley (stats excluding the past weekend) have had a higher percentage of shots from the center of the pitch. However, when losing they can abandon their Plan A and send hopeful long-balls into box. In their recent loss to Swansea, the heat maps caught this clearly.

Yet just the same, Southampton are one of the best sides in the Premier League at holding onto their leads. All in all, this makes the first goal ever so important when the two sides meet tomorrow.

With Southampton sitting in third, a win would keep them ahead of all their closest competitors while a loss leaves them possibly as low as sixth and shifting the odds away from their favor. West Ham may prove their toughest match in the run-in — not because West Ham are such a good side, but due to the trouble Ronald Koeman may have in approaching them tactically. Southampton could set up in a defensive 4-2-3-1 and scrape out a result as his side have proved very adept at against the top sides, or in a more proactive 4-3-3 that runs the risk of conceding the first goal. This is what happened in the opposite fixture and only a miraculous comeback (considering their record) prevented The Saints from dropping three points that day. A win would keep their Champions League hopes alive, while a loss could put the title race back in the hands of Arsenal, Spurs or Liverpool.

Photo credit: Wikipedia Commons

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.