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When should MLS cap its expansion?

By on March 26, 2015

For so long, Major League Soccer was a pitifully small league for a country the size of the U.S. — just nine years ago, it hosted only ten teams across fifty states. The league was desperate for new owners and expansion teams, and the objective MLS always set for itself was twenty-four teams — specifically, by 2020 — though reaching twenty teams to match major European leagues was its first big benchmark. Now for the first time, this season MLS has twenty teams (fittingly, in its twentieth season).

In 1998, the league marked its first expansion, adding the Chicago Fire and the now-defunct Miami Fusion; however, after the collapse of both the Fusion and Tampa Bay Mutiny, the league was diminished to ten teams by 2002. Real Salt Lake and Chivas USA joined in 2005; the San Jose Earthquakes relocated to Houston in 2006; Toronto FC joined in 2007; another San Jose franchise opened in 2008; the Seattle Sounders in 2009; the Philadelphia Union in 2010, and two teams (the Portland Timbers and the Vancouver Whitecaps) in 2011. Expansion slowed, with the Montreal Impact the only club to join for the next three years, but now growth is resuming. New York City FC and Orlando City debuted in MLS this season, albeit partially offset by the loss of Chivas.

In 2017, teams from Atlanta and a replacement for Chivas are set to debut, and just recently, the NASL team Minnesota United was announced as a 2017 or 2018 expansion team. If a David-Beckham owned Miami team comes to fruition, as well, MLS is already set to have twenty-four teams. So, MLS is now on the other edge of the sword: when to limit expansion? The league already has a nine-figure expansion fee, only set to grow with the league and as the expansion opportunities dwindle.

MLS may interpret the question from the business aspect: the US sports scene is already a highly saturated market, and each new MLS team could diminish the market share of its brethren. If MLS wants to become a top league in the world, capping its numbers to 24 is likely prudent — above twenty-four, the more teams, the more potential deadweight (especially without relegation), and star players are further saturated. If MLS is a tree, each new club bears fruit, but eventually, some branches must be pruned for the best ones to capture the sunlight.

There are obviously pluses to expanding as well: namely, continuing to grow the league’s overall potential. This is what makes it such a tough decision. Fundamentally, the question boils down to the MLS’ appetite for growth and how to satisfy it.

“We have geographical needs that are our priority, and it is a priority for us to expand further in the Midwest. We have commitments we’ve made in Miami, and that remains a priority. It’s why we are evaluating whether we should be beyond 24 teams. That process will probably take us the better part of a year, and I think the U.S. and Canada can support more teams than 24, but we’ve got to go through it in a very careful way, and be smart strategically, which is the way I think we have expanded the league.” — MLS Commissioner Don Garber to Football Every Day and others

The reality remains, without changing the league’s system in some way, a cap on expansion must be set soon, if that be at twenty-four or twenty-six, at most. Alternatively, MLS could appease fans hoping for relegation and promotion by opening a second division with twenty teams, expanding the pool to forty-four. A two-tier setup doesn’t necessarily lead to relegation and promotion, though; indeed given the league’s constant wish to appease owners, it probably won’t ever introduce movement between the two leagues to the extent seen in Europe. When we spoke to US Soccer expert Grant Wahl last summer, he said such a setup is plausible in the long-term future, and he hopes to eventually see it happen.

“We want to expand this league in a way where we can manage a careful growth and go to markets where there is a history of supporting soccer,” said Garber, “where we can get the right stadium plan in place, and where we can capture some of the momentum that has been building in the U.S. and Canada for our sport. We’ve got some wind in our sails, and we feel good about that, but I remind our staff and our board every day, we have not cracked the code.” — MLS Commissioner Don Garber to Football Every Day and others

In the short-term, however, that is less plausible. The MLS’ growth and expansion is at an impasse, but should probably wait up for the football market in America to catch up before expanding further, at very least. Only once the league can support more teams should they even consider it.  When speaking during the San Jose Earthquakes’ regular season opener of Avaya Stadium last weekend, Garber admitted MLS has not “cracked the code” to expansion, yet.

Homepage photo credit: Richard Wood on Flickr

About Alex Morgan

Alex Morgan, founder of Football Every Day, lives and breaths football from the West Coast of the United States in California. Aside from founding Football Every Day in January of 2013, Alex has also launched his own journalism career and hopes to help others do the same with FBED. He covers the San Jose Earthquakes as a beat reporter for QuakesTalk.com and his work has also been featured in the BBC's Match of the Day Magazine.